At the last City council meeting, Mandy and the LEDC went asking for a LOT more money (and got it, of course!).
Oh sure, there was a small question or two about massive increases in spending of 66% or 108% or 300% for certain categories – but that was just part of the rubber stamping process.
During her time at the podium trying to explain all the new spending, she made sure to tell us that sales tax receipts were really, really strong, so don’t worry about the money coming in. Except for that little 8% ‘dip’ in July just a couple weeks ago – which I commented on at the time (see front page).
But according to Mandy, that was nothing to worry about…because those numbers are for JUNE spending and she’s certain the very next month will see a jump because next month’s numbers”reflects July and Spring Ho and people coming in town, I think we’ll see another increase there…” [1:27:00 mark]
No, seriously. That was the explanation. What’s even crazier is that nobody on council caught that error in logic. Then again, they are used to tall tales from the LEDC and Mandy Walsh.
I’m not sure how to break this to Mandy, but those numbers are YoY (year-over-year) comparisons – NOT MoM (month-over-month) . So when we see the July 2022 sales tax numbers in a couple weeks, it will show a comparison to July 2021. You may be shocked to learn this, but we ALSO had Spring Ho in July 2021 – so you will be comparing a Spring Ho month to another Spring Ho month. There should be very little change, save for the effects of inflation.
I hate to tell her but whatever money is spent in bars and restaurants during Spring Ho is spit in the ocean compared to what is spent on, say, gasoline ($50 million annually) or car dealerships (about $7 million) or building materials and lumberyards (about $12 million).
Also, everyone but the Brandon Administration is well aware we are now in a recession. Spending tends to decrease in a recession. I would not be surprised to see the July sales tax numbers (released in a couple weeks) show yet another ‘dip’ from a year earlier.
The assumption that sales tax receipts will grow forever and ever is a risky assumption to make. I guess we’ll know in about 16 days!