We’ve tested half of the entire state of Minnesota. We’ve tracked over 300,000 infected people. Throw out the covid models… we have the real data.
Survival rate outside of long term care = 99.90%
Under age 60 = 99.98%
Survival rate overall = 99.71%
Find your age below:
Source: MN Dept of Health
https://health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html#res1…
[Estimate uses 4x actual infections to reported cases while actual CDC guidance is around 11x (6x-24x) – so these estimates are EXTREMELY conservative.]
In other words, for every “detected case” they are assuming 4 cases that were undetected – even though the CDC guides MUCH higher: more like 11 undetected cases for “every detected case”.
Lampasas county has supposedly seen 700 “cases”. That means a conservative estimate is 2,800 ACTUAL undetected cases and as many as 7,700 actual undetected cases, if CDC guidelines are used at 11x the detected rate.
[Undetected cases = all those people you know who are pretty damn sure they had this already back in Jan or Feb when we had a brutal ‘cold’ we couldn’t shake for 7-10 days. Coughing, short of breath, etc. I went through this myself between Feb 5th and the 15th after attending a huge tournament in San Antonio with people from ALL OVER – including NY and CA]
If you assume ALL of our “13 deaths” are legit and completely due to Covid virus ONLY and not co-morbidities (I don’t believe this, but let’s assume they are for the moment) – then we are looking at 13/2,800 as a VERY conservative case fatality rate – which means a 99.53% survival rate. Very close to the above rate for Minnesota (99.71%)
If we use the CDC estimate of 11x detected rates, then we get 13/7,700 CFR here in Lampasas which means a 99.83% survival rate here in Lampasas County.
From what I can determine from our shoddy and incomplete Covid reporting, at least 5 of those 13 were in long term care. Possibly half but with reporting so poor it’s impossible to tell. I’ll go with 5, meaning 8 deaths were outside LTC facilities.
So, very likely our survival rate OUTSIDE LTC is close to that Minnesota number of 99.90% (8 deaths/2,800 actual cases = 99.71% survival and 8/7,700 = 99.90% survival rate).
Amazing how the numbers for Minnesota and little old Lampasas seem to line up so well.